Weekly Market Commentary: Equity Markets Rise as Certainty of Fed Cut Increases

Sunflower Bank Weekly Market Commentary: December 8, 2025

Each week, our Wealth Management team analyzes the U.S. stock market and bond market activity and news of the previous week, summarizing their findings into a weekly market update report. The key points of this week's commentary, "Equity Markets Rise as Certainty of Fed Cut Increases," include:

• Equity markets ended last week higher, building on strong gains realized in the last week of November. The S&P 500 rose +0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 gained +1.0%, and the Russell 2000 increased +0.9%. The increase in stocks comes as interest rate futures traders have become increasingly confident in a 25-basis point reduction in the Fed Funds Rate later this week. As of Friday’s close, futures markets implied a 95% probability of a cut.
• The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet this week and announce an interest rate decision on Wednesday. This meeting will include the Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections.
• Economic data continues to trickle in, as government entities publish data that was delayed due to the government shutdown. Last week’s data releases included the September Personal Income and Outlays report. Data within the release came in largely as expected. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – increased +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year, as expected.

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