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Weekly Market Commentary: Equity Markets Take a Breather
09/29/25
Sunflower Bank Weekly Market Commentary: September 29, 2025
Each week, our Wealth Management team analyzes the U.S. stock market and bond market activity and news of the previous week, summarizing their findings into a weekly market update report. The key points of this week's commentary, "Equity Markets Take a Breather," include:
- Equity markets declined slightly last week. Prior to this dip, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had increased for three consecutive weeks and the small cap Russell 2000 had increased seven weeks in a row.
- Equity markets have been on an exceptional run over the past three years. Since ChatGPT’s launch in late November 2022, the Nasdaq 100 has more than doubled (up +103%), the S&P 500 is up +70%, and the MSCI ACWI is up almost +65%.
- Importantly, increased forward-looking EPS estimates have supported this rally. Earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 Index are up almost +30% since November 2022.
- A disproportionate amount of equity market returns have been driven by companies participating in the AI spending boom. According to a JP Morgan analysis, since ChatGPT was launched, a group of 41 AI-related companies have accounted for 75% of the S&P 500’s return. In addition, these companies have accounted for 80% of the increase in corporate earnings for the Index.