Weekly Market Commentary: Markets Finish 3Q25 Strong Amidst Government Shutdown Noise

Sunflower Bank Weekly Market Commentary: October 6, 2025

Each week, our Wealth Management team analyzes the U.S. stock market and bond market activity and news of the previous week, summarizing their findings into a weekly market update report. The key points of this week's commentary, "Markets Finish 3Q25 Strong Amidst Government Shutdown Noise," include:

• Equity markets ended the week higher, building on strong year-to-date performance. The S&P 500 rose +1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 gained +1.2%, and the Russell 2000 climbed +1.8%. Despite being a historically weak month of equity market returns, September was the third strongest month this year for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
• Interestingly, small cap stocks are beginning to catch up to their large cap peers after underperforming for much of the year. The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by 6% over the last 40 trading days. After trailing the S&P 500 by more than 9% on August 8^th, the Russell 2000 now sits just 3% behind the large cap index.
• The government officially shutdown at midnight last Tuesday after Congress failed to reach an agreement on a spending bill to fund the government. While a government shutdown can shake consumer confidence and the lack of economic data increases uncertainty, a closure generally has little impact on the market. Read our recent primer for more information on government shutdowns and the impact (or lack thereof) on financial market. 

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