Important Fraud Alert: We have received reports from customers of phone, electronic, and mailed communications that falsely represent Sunflower Bank and/or our employees. If you are contacted by someone claiming to be from Sunflower Bank attempting to gain access to account information, password, or other sensitive information, contact us directly through a verified phone number. Remember, we will never ask you to provide your online banking login credentials or account information. Customer Care is available at 888.827.5564 for additional assistance.
Friday Focus - November 13, 2026
11/13/26
FRIDAY FOCUS: Smart insight and clear visuals that matter – what we’re watching now and how intention and conviction shape our portfolios.
Markets
Market Leadership Shifts Back Toward Value
Recent weakness in AI-related equities has drawn attention, but we believe the shift beneath the surface started long before this week's headlines. Value stocks are outperforming growth by roughly 20% this year, putting 2026 on track for the second-largest year of value outperformance relative to growth since 2002.
According to Morningstar, many of the companies associated with the value resurgence include established businesses such as Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Exxon, Chevron, and Johnson & Johnson. Market leadership is rarely permanent. As investors reassess valuations and earnings resilience, fundamentals and valuation discipline appear to be regaining importance.
Debt
Rising Interest Costs Tighten Fiscal Flexibility
Annualized debt service costs on U.S. government debt have reached an estimated $1.452 trillion—an 11.8% increase over the past six months and more than triple the level recorded five years ago. This rapid compounding underscores the intensifying structural pressure on the federal budget, where escalating interest obligations increasingly typically constrain fiscal flexibility and elevate long-term risk.
Tech
The Free Cash Flow Cost of the AI Buildout
In recent years, growth in cash flow from operating activities has been solid, but capital expenditure has exploded, driving down free cash flow (FCF).
The aggregate trailing-four-quarter FCF for the five hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle) was about $170 billion in the first quarter of 2024, delivering a yield on the market value of equity of 2.0 percent. In the second quarter of 2026, the FCF dropped to about $35 billion and the yield fell to 0.3 percent.
- Amazon’s FCF is expected to trough in the second quarter of 2027 at -$70 billion and rise to $330 billion in 2031.
- Alphabet (the parent company of Google) is expected to reach a bottom in FCF in the fourth quarter of 2027 at -$80 billion. The cash flows turn from there and climb to about $305 billion in 2031. This is the second largest swing.
- Microsoft is the only one of these companies that is forecast to maintain positive FCF in the next few years.
- Meta Platforms’ FCF troughs in the fourth quarter of 2027 at -$85 billion and recovers to $105 billion by 2031.
- Oracle was among the first of these firms to record negative FCF, and the low is in the second quarter of 2027 at almost -$60 billion. The analyst consensus forecasts positive FCF of $35 billion in 2030.
Real Estate
Real Estate Finds Relief as Bond Yields Retreat
After rising bond yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy weighed heavily on real estate in August and September, the pressure from rising bond yields eased in October.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed from under 4.60% in late July to 5.27% at the end of September and briefly hit a multi-decade high of 5.31% in early October before retreating to 4.91% at month-end.
- Lodging/resorts sector leads global real estate performance in 2026 after climbing 10.9% in October, delivering a year-to-date total return of 38.7%, followed by data centers at 26.2%, and self-storage at 23.1%.
- Telecommunications also posted a standout October gain of 19.3%, lifting its year-to-date return to 6.7%.
- Timberland, industrial/office mixed, and residential have lagged in 2026, posting respective year-to-date returns of -10.5%, -9.7%, and -6.8%.
Economic Calendar: Week Ahead (Eastern Time)
Mon, 11/16 @ 8:30 am: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Tues, 11/17 @ 8:30 am: Retail Sales
@ 8:30 am: Import Prices
@ 9:15 am: Industrial Production, M/M%
@ 9:15 am: Capacity Utilization %
@ 10:00 am: Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories
@ 10:00 am: NAHB Housing Market Index
Wed, 11/18 @ 8:30 am: Housing Starts
@ 10:00 am: Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M%
@ 2:00 pm: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thur, 11/19 @ 8:30 am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
@ 8:30 am: Weekly Jobless Claims
@ 10:00 am: Leading Indicators
@ 11:00 am: Kansas City Fed Survey
Fri, 11/20 @ 10:00 am: U. Michigan Final Consumer Survey
The Team Behind Friday Focus
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Investment advisory services are offered through FirstSun Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investments and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. FirstSun Advisors is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstSun Capital Bancorp.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark. Indexes are unmanaged composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. FirstSun Advisors does not recommend the purchase of/investment in cryptocurrencies. FirstSun Advisors considers cryptocurrencies to be speculative and involves various risk factors, including, but not limited to, liquidity constraints, operational and execution risks, and potential for extreme price volatility and complete loss of my investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to transact in that security, or any security.
This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The information and opinions expressed herein are as-of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. FirstSun Advisors deems reliable any statistical data or information obtained from or prepared by third party sources that is included in any commentary, but in no way guarantees its accuracy or completeness. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.
FirstSun Advisors will not act upon investment trade instructions left on voicemail or sent by email. Please contact your advisor by phone to coordinate any trade requests.
You are advised to notify FirstSun Advisors in writing of any changes to your personal or financial situation, or investment objectives, so that we may review and, if appropriate, revise our recommendations or services. You may also provide written instructions if you wish to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions on our investment advisory services. FirstSun Advisors will continue to rely on the accuracy and completeness of the information you have provided unless notified otherwise.
A current copy of our written disclosure brochure and Form CRS, which describe our advisory services and fees, is available upon request or here.
Stay Informed
Ready to explore how Sunflower Bank can assist you? Speak to a personal banker at a branch near you, contact a specialist on our Private Wealth team, or find the right financial partner on our Commercial Banking team for your business needs.
This article contains general information only. Sunflower Bank, N.A. is not, by means of this article, rendering accounting, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. It is not meant as a substitute for such professional advice or services. Before making any decisions related to these matters, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Investment and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Investment advisory services offered by FirstSun Advisors, an SEC registered investment adviser. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark.