We’re excited to welcome all First Foundation Bank customers to Sunflower Bank’s accounts and services. Please access online banking portals through the Login box. For helpful information, please visit SunflowerBank.com/MergerUpdates.
Friday Focus - October 9, 2026
10/09/26
FRIDAY FOCUS: Smart insight and clear visuals that matter – what we’re watching now and how intention and conviction shape our portfolios.
Markets
A Potential Shift in Leadership
Earnings season is looming and projections are rebounding despite a brief dip. After a mid-year lull, profit projections are recovering, setting the stage for what strategists expect to be a pivotal shift in leadership: the S&P 493 is on track to outpace the Magnificent Seven in quarterly earnings growth for the first time in several years. A handoff in earnings momentum from mega-cap tech to the rest of the benchmark could breathe fresh life into an equal-weight rally that has repeatedly sputtered.
The wildcard for the stock market is the Fed. Fed funds futures suggest policymakers are leaning toward holding interest rates steady at their next meeting, a pause that would provide breathing room for capital-sensitive companies in the equal-weighted S&P 500. A slower tightening path buys corporate America a runway, allowing companies to offset higher terminal borrowing costs through organic bottom-line expansion rather than balance-sheet triage.
Tech
What repays the AI bond
Most discussions surrounding AI focus on high-flying tech stocks, but the massive scale of data centers, power grids, and computing hardware being built requires hundreds of billions of dollars in debt financing. AI infrastructure has evolved from purely an equity story into a critical fixed-income market. For bond investors, a key to navigating this buildout lies in understanding where the money comes from to repay the debt.
A hyperscaler’s corporate bond relies on enterprise cash flow. Data-center project debt may depend on tenant lease payments, while financing for graphics processing units can rely on customer contracts and hardware collateral. Each structure calls for different analysis, from balance-sheet capacity to construction, power availability and the asset’s usefulness if demand changes. We see a portfolio implication in those distinctions. Different bond categories can share dependence on the same AI spending cycle or tenants. A prominent technology company behind a lease may support the credit, but the lender still needs to examine the project’s own terms and risks. Understanding the repayment source helps reveal what diversification by category alone may miss.
Commodities
Coal and Copper
For over two decades, we’ve followed commodity specialists Goehring & Rozencwajg, who had some uncomfortable opinions about two popular commodities, Coal & Copper. They believe Coal is the commodity to buy, and Copper is the one to sell. Below are some of the statistics as well as a counterpoint chart from Robert Fiedland (CEO of Ivanhoe Electric).
Coal:
- There are 300 Gigawatts of current coal-fired generating capacity in China, but they have 500 GW under construction which reports suggest could lead to a 50% increase in capacity after older plants are retired.
- The U.S. has closed 390 coal plants since 2010 and has just 200 still in production. Peak U.S. coal consumption in 2008 was 1.1bn tons which fell to 410 million tons in 2024 but grew in 2025 to 450 million tons on the needs of our grid.
Copper:
- World copper consumption in 2010 was 19.2 million tons which grew to 27.1m tons by 2025. Of the 7.9m tons growth, 7.4m was China.
- Over the past decade 700k tons was the average growth that shrunk to 300k tons over the past 3 years and a NEGATIVE 100k in the first half of 2026!
In summary, Goehring & Rozencwajg focus on near-to-medium-term demand realities and valuations (where coal is cheap with solid demand, and copper is expensive with fading Chinese consumption). Robert Friedland focuses on long-term geological supply constraints (where copper cannot physically meet the globe's electrification goals regardless of short-term macro wobbles).
International
European Debt Worries Resurface
Investor concerns over European political and fiscal stability have intensified in recent weeks. The slide to a 17-month low for the euro has laid bare a familiar worry on Wall Street: Europe’s political center is straining under heavy sovereign debt.
France has become a flashpoint, where parliamentary deadlock and budget debate have pushed the yield premium investors demand to hold French over safe-haven German 10-year debt to levels reminiscent of past European debt scares. Markets remain on alert for bond market instability spilling back into the euro, echoing the sovereign crisis of the early 2010s. The heavy debt load of core euro area members like France, Italy and Belgium is a particular vulnerability in a world of rising borrowing costs. Investors are responding by paring exposure to French debt and domestic-focused European shares, reallocating capital toward the US dollar and multinational exporters shielded from regional volatility.
Economic Calendar: Week Ahead (Eastern Time)
Tues, 10/13 @ 6:00 am: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
@ 10:00 am: Existing Home Sales
@ 2:00 pm: Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government
Wed, 10/14 @ 8:30 am: CPI, CPI Y/Y%
@ 8:30 am: Core CPI, M/M% and Y/Y%
@ 2:00 pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thu, 10/15 @ 8:30 am: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
@ 8:30 am: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
@ 8:30 am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
@ 8:30 am: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
@ 8:30 am: PPI, PPI Y/Y%
@ 8:30 am: Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M%
@ 10:00 am: Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Fri, 10/16 @ 8:30 am: Import Prices
@ 9:15 am: Industrial Production, M/M%
@ 9:15 am: Capacity Utilization %
The Team Behind Friday Focus
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Investment advisory services are offered through First Foundation Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser. FirstSun Advisors is a tradename used by First Foundation Advisors as it works to integrate names following its merger into FirstSun Capital Bancorp family of brands. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investments and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. FirstSun Advisors is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstSun Capital Bancorp.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark. Indexes are unmanaged composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. FirstSun Advisors does not recommend the purchase of/investment in cryptocurrencies. FirstSun Advisors considers cryptocurrencies to be speculative and involves various risk factors, including, but not limited to, liquidity constraints, operational and execution risks, and potential for extreme price volatility and complete loss of my investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to transact in that security, or any security.
This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The information and opinions expressed herein are as-of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. FirstSun Advisors deems reliable any statistical data or information obtained from or prepared by third party sources that is included in any commentary, but in no way guarantees its accuracy or completeness. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.
FirstSun Advisors will not act upon investment trade instructions left on voicemail or sent by email. Please contact your advisor by phone to coordinate any trade requests.
You are advised to notify FirstSun Advisors in writing of any changes to your personal or financial situation, or investment objectives, so that we may review and, if appropriate, revise our recommendations or services. You may also provide written instructions if you wish to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions on our investment advisory services. FirstSun Advisors will continue to rely on the accuracy and completeness of the information you have provided unless notified otherwise.
A current copy of our written disclosure brochure and Form CRS, which describe our advisory services and fees, is available upon request or here.
Stay Informed
Ready to explore how Sunflower Bank can assist you? Speak to a personal banker at a branch near you, contact a specialist on our Wealth Management team, or find the right financial partner on our Commercial Banking team for your business needs.
This article contains general information only. Sunflower Bank, N.A. is not, by means of this article, rendering accounting, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. It is not meant as a substitute for such professional advice or services. Before making any decisions related to these matters, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Investment and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Investment advisory services are offered through First Foundation Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser. FirstSun Advisors is a tradename used by First Foundation Advisors as it works to integrate names following its merger into the FirstSun Capital Bancorp family of brands. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investments and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. FirstSun Advisors is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstSun Capital Bancorp.