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Friday Focus - September 25, 2026
09/25/26
Smart insight and clear visuals that matter – what we’re watching now and how intention and conviction shape our portfolios.
Markets: Resilience on the Surface, Rotation Beneath
The S&P 500 has drifted sideways since hitting record highs in mid-August, pinned down by persistent inflation jitters and a 10-year Treasury yield stubbornly parked around 5%. WTI crude has backed off below $100 a barrel, but it’s still sitting roughly 40% above its July lows—a sticky backdrop that nudged the Fed into delivering its first-rate hike in three years last week. So far, equity investors haven't blinked. The benchmark index sits barely 2% off its peak, with markets taking comfort in the Fed’s posturing. Yet underneath that surface resilience, cracks are showing. With US valuations priced for perfection against a 5% risk-free rate, global capital is quietly broadening its horizons. Fund flows have increasingly begun rotating offshore, seeking cheaper valuations and areas for increased portfolio diversification.
Tech Watch: AI Adoption & Competition
Meta's agentic AI app Muse entered the U.S. App Store’s top 20 on September 9 at No. 4. Nine days later, it was No. 1.
- Muse advancement displaced ChatGPT, which occupied the top position for most of the past year. Gemini, despite Google’s distribution, spent much of the period well below the leaders.
- Muse’s rise may be a reminder that AI consumer products can gain share quickly given buzz and distribution. Users seem to be able to switch applications at negligible cost questioning the moat durability of serious competitors.
AI Update: Industry Growth & Investment Trends
Given how important AI is to the market, the economy and construction spending, we have compiled several notable AI-related developments from the past week. While none are individually transformative, collectively they provide meaningful insight into the current state of the AI landscape and are therefore included in this week's update.
Anthropic IPO Timeline & Launch Details
- The WSJ noted last Friday that Anthropic plans to launch its IPO in November, and that advisers say waiting until November would give them time to share Q3 results that show a strong competitive position, even after rival OpenAI launched its newest model, Astra, in September.
- NYT was also out with an article on Friday noting Anthropic “could publicly release financial documents detailing its offering as soon as in the coming weeks.”
Anthropic Valuation
- $100B is still the raise amount largely speculated.
- WSJ also notes that “Current investors expect the company to reach more than $110B in ARR by year-end.” This figure likely represents a key expectation against which future performance will be measured.
- NYT was also out with an article on Friday noting “The company is expected to reach more than $100B in ARR by the end of this year, according to four people familiar with the matter.”
- Below is the Anthropic ARR update bridging the gap with the NYT’s noted greater than $100B by the End of Year. The table was done by Jefferies and provides an interesting comparison between company-reported figures and estimates that have appeared in media reports.
OpenAI Competition & New Model Developments
- Discussions over the weekend suggested that Anthropic is considering rolling out a new model to counter OpenAI’s momentum since its launch of GPT-6 Astra.
Finance / AI Model Performance Study
- The Financial Times noted the most popular AI models from ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Grok and Gemini provided incorrect answers to financial queries 57% of the time on average.
- When asked more complex questions, such as those involving more than one calculation, the models made mistakes in 88% of cases on average More advanced and premium version generally demonstrated stronger performance.
- Separately, the WSJ published a compelling chart highlighting the increasingly important role data centers are playing in overall construction spending.
Source: Jefferies; ^ note in the above there are 2 May-26 columns given that month we got both a media reported # and then a late in the month company reported. Blue = company reported; Orange = Media reported
Housing: Multifamily Faces a Refinancing Test
According to Mortgage Bankers Association, more than $1.8 trillion in debt over the next decade will mature. From this year to 2028, about $757 billion of loans are coming due mostly from multifamily sector. We expect to continue to see more price discoveries as lagged valuations reset.
- When mortgage rates tumbled to historic lows in 2020 and 2021, multifamily was the one of the fastest growing segments with rents surging double digits.
- Now many landlords are facing question to refinance their maturing 3.5% debt with today’s 6% levels when rents have moderated.
- A report from Morgan Stanley highlights that the delinquency rate for multifamily loans in CMBS has jumped from 1% in October 2023 to 7.1% this year.
- Real estate’s biggest investors are not immune. In June, Blackstone defaulted on a $90 million loan from Ares Real Estate for an apartment building in North Dallas that was bought in 2021.
Source: Commloan.com
Economic Calendar: Week Ahead (Eastern Time)
Tues, 9/29 @ 9:00 am: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px Index
@ 10:00 am: Conference Bd - Consumer Confidence
@ 10:00 am: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Wed, 9/30 @ 8:15 am: ADP National Employment Report
@ 8:30 am: 3rd estimate GDP
@ 8:30 am: Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods
@ 8:30 am: Wholesale Inventories
@ 8:30 am: Retail Inventories
@ 8:30 am: Personal Income, M/M%
@ 8:30 am: Consumer Spending, M/M%
@ 8:30 am: PCE Price Index, M/M%, Y/Y%
@ 8:30 am: PCE Core Price Index, M/M%, Y/Y%
@ 9:45 am: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
Thur, 10/1 @ 8:30 am: Weekly Jobless Claims
@ 9:45 am: US Manufacturing PMI
@ 10:00 am: ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI
@ 10:00 am: Construction Spending
Fri, 10/2 @ 8:30 am: Employment Report
@ 8:30 am: Unemployment Rate
@ 8:30 am: Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M%, Y/Y%
@ 10:00 am: Factory Orders
The Team Behind Friday Focus
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Investment advisory services are offered through First Foundation Advisors, an SEC-registered investment adviser. FirstSun Advisors is a tradename used by First Foundation Advisors as it works to integrate names following its merger into the FirstSun Capital Bancorp family of brands. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investments and insurance products are not FDIC-insured, are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by the bank or an affiliate of the bank, are not insured by any federal government agency and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. FirstSun Advisors is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstSun Capital Bancorp.